US Distracted Over Trump’s Illness – Other Nations Take Advantage?

Pete Coates, Submarine Matters, 3.10.2020

When there is this kind of crisis some countries feel they can take advantage of US „peacemaking“. Usually the US Lame-duck presidential period presents opportunities, but a very ill US President even more so.

Countries can most quickly boost border tensions or take the prize they have coveted for so long.

Possible scenarios include:

1. China invades Taiwan

2. China being much more assertive in South China and East China Seas, eg. China cracking down on
US FONOPs.

3. China cracks down even more in Hong Kong, eg. 100s-1,000s of arrests rather than just a few.

4. Heightened North Korean border tensions with South Korea.

5. Increased Russia boosting of Ukrainian civil war, Russia advancing into Baltic States or

6. Russian and/or Belarus authoritarian Government violently „restoring order“ against democratic
Belarussian protesters.

7. Many Middle Eastern possibilities – including Iraq, Syria, Israel, Iran, blowing up oil facilities, Saudi-
Yemen, etc. Oil rise spikes.

8. Increased skirmishing on India-China border, India-Pakistan skirmishing and airstrikes.

Many other opportunistic scenarios while US „peacemaking“ is sleeping and while other countries, and the UN, are focussing/reacting to US happenings.