{"id":1494,"date":"2020-10-20T11:08:52","date_gmt":"2020-10-20T09:08:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/?p=1494"},"modified":"2020-10-21T11:12:18","modified_gmt":"2020-10-21T09:12:18","slug":"despite-military-improvements-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-still-highly-risky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/despite-military-improvements-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-still-highly-risky\/","title":{"rendered":"Despite Military Improvements, Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Still \u2018Highly Risky\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Despite Military Improvements, Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Still \u2018Highly Risky\u2019 Says Former Pentagon Official<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.usni.org\/2020\/10\/20\/despite-military-improvements-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-still-highly-risky-says-former-pentagon-official?utm_source=USNI+News&amp;utm_campaign=232dc7f2b1-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-232dc7f2b1-230454577&amp;mc_cid=232dc7f2b1&amp;mc_eid=df11b2a5f3\">John Grady, USNI, October 20, 2020 6:08 PM<\/a><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1495\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1495\" style=\"width: 1198px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/despite-military-improvements-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-still-highly-risky\/173b265151748691521259\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1495\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1495\" src=\"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/173b265151748691521259.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1198\" height=\"837\" srcset=\"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/173b265151748691521259.jpeg 1198w, https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/173b265151748691521259-300x210.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/173b265151748691521259-1024x715.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/173b265151748691521259-768x537.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1198px) 100vw, 1198px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1495\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Soldiers of the 74th Army Group of the People\u2019s Liberation Army take part in a battle drill in a coastal area of Guangdong province on June 1, 2020. Xinhua Photo<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Xi Jinping\u2019s go hard approach to bringing Taiwan to heel isn\u2019t about to let up, but \u201cit would be highly risky\u201d for China to believe the United States would not intervene if it launched an all-out cross-straits invasion, a former senior Trump administration Pentagon official said.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking Monday at an Atlantic Council online forum, Randall Schriver, now chairman of Project 2049, compared the island to the Fulda Gap, a pivotal point in the defense of Western Europe during the Cold War.<\/p>\n<p>While \u201cthe PLA [People\u2019s Liberation Army] is getting better\u201d at amphibious warfare, moving \u201ctens of thousands or hundreds of thousands\u201d of troops \u201cacross 80 nautical miles of water\u201d and then successfully fighting an active resistance in mountainous terrain is not likely, Schriver said.<\/p>\n<p>China \u201cprefers to win without fighting,\u201d he added. That does not mean Xi is backing down on eventual reunification, a goal he wants to reach by the centennial of the founding of the Chinese communist party in 2021.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Cross-Strait Seminar Series: Taiwan and the future of US-China strategic competition\" width=\"710\" height=\"399\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/tL-cLEkD7VI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Neither Schriver nor the other two security and economic experts on the panel expect a major shift in American policy toward Taiwan \u2014 economically and militarily \u2014 even if former Vice President Joseph Biden is elected.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re seeing an entirely different level\u201d of pressure put on Taiwan by the mainland than it has employed against Australia, the Philippines and Mongolia, or nations that still maintain diplomatic relations with Taipei, said the Atlantic Council\u2019s Dexter Tiff Roberts.<\/p>\n<p>To the other nations, as their largest trading partner, China is most often applying economic pressure, usually without the threat of military force.<\/p>\n<p>The difference comes in the saber-rattling against the government of President Tsai Ing-wen that includes deploying new amphibious vessels, coastal military build-up, constant testing of air defenses and responses and recent large-scale amphibious assault exercises.<\/p>\n<p>Michael Mazza, of the American Enterprise Institute, said the Taiwanese are \u201cseeking to diversify their economic partners\u201d to ensure their survival. Among the steps they have taken is lifting restrictions on beef and pork coming from the United States as a means to negotiate a free trade agreement and tighten ties with Washington.<\/p>\n<p>So far, there has been no indication that the United States is moving toward such an agreement with Taiwan.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTaiwan\u2019s most important relationships are with the United States, Japan and the E.U.,\u201d Schriver said, referring to Taiwan\u2019s ability to grow economically in the future.<\/p>\n<p>The complicating factor in that comes in the intertwined manufacturing and trade arrangements that Taiwan maintains with China and the United States, Roberts said. Using Foxconn, a large Taiwanese-based electronics manufacturer, as an example of a corporation that has top customers in both countries, Roberts said \u201cthere is pressure on them to take sides\u201d in the competition between the two powers.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, more residents \u2014 younger ones who often support Tsai\u2019s party, which leans toward independence \u2014 identify themselves as Taiwanese and many view the island as the Republic of China, an entity different from the mainland. \u201cIt\u2019s a framework that the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] doesn\u2019t like,\u201d despite Tsai\u2019s \u201ccreative way\u201d of downplaying talk of an independent Taiwan, Roberts said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTaiwan is [America\u2019s] ninth largest trading partner\u201d and its response to the COVID-19 pandemic matters when considering reliable partners, Schriver said. He also cited its position as an upholder of democratic values in the Indo-Pacific as another factor in its favor.<\/p>\n<p>He noted that the Trump administration \u201csees Taiwan as a true partner\u201d that \u201cpunches above its weight as a good citizen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Taiwan \u201cis the key to security\u201d beyond Japan and the South China Sea. Schriver said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite Military Improvements, Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Still \u2018Highly Risky\u2019 Says Former Pentagon Official John Grady, USNI, October 20, 2020 6:08 PM Xi Jinping\u2019s go hard approach to bringing Taiwan to heel isn\u2019t about to let up, but \u201cit would<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1495,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-allgemein"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1494"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1494\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1497,"href":"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1494\/revisions\/1497"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1495"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/luftverteidigung.ch\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}